I am not ready to think about ordering playoff tickets, but I’m cautiously optimistic about what I’ve seen from the Cincinnati Reds so far this season. I love their young starting pitchers. I think they have the best infield in the National League. And in Dusty Baker, they have a veteran manager who has to be in the discussion about National League manager-of-the-year so far.

Over the last several years, the Reds have been a fragile team that comes unglued at the first sign of adversity. But this season they’ve shown a new mental toughness that’s encouraging. When they blew a big ninth-inning lead at Atlanta, they didn’t quit. When they dropped five of six to Kansas City, they regrouped. And when they got swept by the Phillies in a cruel four-game set just before the All-Star break…well, how will they react to that?

The last three losses were harsh. First they blow a six-run lead in the ninth and lose in extra innings. Then they get an eight-inning no-hitter from rookie Travis Wood, fresh up from Louisville, and get beat again in extra innings, 1-0. On the heels of that came another 1-0 extra-inning loss that ran their scoreless streak to 23 innings.

If ever a team needed a break at that point, the Reds were it. The four-day layoff will give them a chance to lick their wounds and get back up on the horse. And the good news is, despite the crushing losses to the Phillies, they still lead the National League Central over the St. Louis Cardinals.

Unlike the Reds, the Cards are a team that’s accustomed to winning. They will no panic, nor will they go away easily. We know that. The question is whether the Reds can build on what they accomplished in the first half. For that to happen, the bullpen must stop frittering away great efforts by the starters. Right-fielder Jay Bruce needs to prove he can hit left-handers. And Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Scott Rolen need to keep on producing big plays.

It’s not as if the Reds were the reincarnation of the Big Red Machine. They were in a lot of close games that could have gone either way. They came out on top in most — 24 of their wins were of the come-from-behind variety — but that won’t necessarily be the case the rest of the season. The law of averages always may come into play.

The starting rotation will get a boost with the addition of Edison Volquez, who was sensational during his rehab stint with the Louisville Bats. He should join Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Adam Harang, Wood, and Mike Leake in one of the league’s best rotations. I’m not expecting Homer Bailey to come back this season.

Other than Bailey, the team was reasonably healthy the first half of the season. They can’t afford to lose Rolen, Phillips, or Votto, but everyone else is replaceable. The Reds are deep in talented young outfielders, and Paul Janish is a Gold-Glove-caliber fielder who is getting better with the bat.

But if injuries do happen, some players in Louisville seem ready to help — Gary Matthews Jr., Chris Valaika, Yonder Alonso, and Juan Francisco, to name a few.

It’s going to be the Reds or the Cards. Nobody else in the division has the potential to mount a second-half drive. But I’m thinking — hoping, really — that the Reds will go forward the second half instead of kicking it into reverse. Baker often has said that his biggest challenge in Cincinnati has been building a winning mentality. The Reds showed in the first half that they can handle misfortune without quitting.
Now they need to show that they have the confidence to seal the deal.