The “scattered showers” predicted for Friday afternoon turned into a steady downpour that soaked a lot of Derby hats and took the starch out of just about everything except the Kentucky Oaks, where Proud Spell lit up the day with a stunning performance that defied the slop and the gloom.

I had been on her bandwagon since January, when former Kentucky Governor Brereton Jones, her breeder and owner, told me to keep an eye on her. I never wavered, even when she finished third in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. Yesterday morning I touted her to a tour group from Los Angeles.

So it’s already been a good Derby weekend for yours truly. I’ve always liked and admired Governor Jones, a sensitive and compassionate man who cares deeply about the horse industry and its relationship to the people of Kentucky. He and his wife Libby represent the best of us.

After yesterday’s deluge, handicappers everywhere went back to their charts, graphs, printouts and system to see which of the 20 Derby entrants might run best on an “off” track. That’s good information to have, although I have a feeling that we’re going to have a fast track for the Derby.

In Butch Lehr, Churchill Downs has an incomparable track superintendent. If the weather gives Butch and his staff a break, you can bet the track will be as good as human beings possibly can get it.

You want analysis? I have analysis.

Off his past performances, the horse to beat is Colonel John, impressive winner of the Santa Anita Derby. The only question: Would he like Churchill’s dirt track? The answer: Yes, a lot, judging by his workouts here.

But before Governor Steve Beshear hands the Derby trophy to Colonel John’s owners, we must consider three horses whose brilliance compromised by nagging questions.

Big Brown – Named for UPS, this colt is either going to prove himself to be racing’s next superstar or racing’s next super fizzle. His trainer, Richard Dutrow, seems to think he’s the next Man o’ War. He picked the No. 20 post for him, even though others were available, as if to say, “Just to prove how good he is, we’ll handicap ourselves with the worst post in the field and still win.” His first three races, all victories, have been dazzling. But three races do not necessarily give a colt the right seasoning for the Derby.

Pyro – He was the Derby favorite until he threw in a clunker in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, finishing a dismal 10th. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, said he hated Keeneland’s Polytrack surface. So do you throw out that race or take the position that nobody can win the Derby off such a dismal performance?

Eight Belles – She’s 4-for-4 this year, but has never beaten colts. She would have been favored in the Oaks, but trainer Larry Jones – who also trains Proud Spell – opted for the Derby. After the way Proud Spell ran yesterday, it would be a big mistake to not give Eight Belles serious consideration this afternoon.

Those four horses – Colonel John, Big Brown, Pyro, and Eight Belles – are the class of the field. But as history teaches us, the horse with the most class and the most talent doesn’t always win the Derby.

When 20 horses and 20 riders fight for the grandest prize in the sport over a mile and a quarter, anything can happen and usually does.

So I’m picking Eight Belles to finish fourth, the longshot Recapturetheglory third, and Pyro second. I like Recapturetheglory because he’s coming off a win in the Illinois Derby, he has trained well at Churchill, and the Derby owes one to the colt’s co-owners, Louie Roussell and Ronnie Lamarque. They had the best horse in the 1988 Derby, Risen Star, but he got caught in traffic and never threatened Winning Colors.

The winner?

Court Vision, mainly because I figure it’s trainer Bill Mott’s time to win the Derby. The all-time leading trainer at Churchill, Mott earned his way into racing’s Hall of Fame mostly by developing older horses and top grass horses. Oddly, he has never particularly coveted the Derby or the other 3-year-old classics.

It was pretty much the same with another Hall of Famer, Charlie Whittingham, who brought a horse to the Derby in 1962, got soundly beat, and decided it wasn’t worth all the trouble. But in the twilight of his career, when he got Ferdinand, Whittingham changed his mind. He decided the Derby was worth winning.

And so he won it, not once, but twice. In 1986, as the field charged down the stretch, a hole opened in the pack just big enough for jockey Bill Shoemaker to shoot Ferdinand through. That was the winning move for Whittingham. Three years later, Charlie came back to win the Derby again with Sunday Silence.

Now Mott, after years of seeming indifference, seems to finally have made the Derby a priority. In Court Vision, he has a steadily improving horse who likes to come from off the pace. He has been training well at Churchill. I like his style, but, mostly, I like his trainer.

Today is Bill Mott’s Day. And don’t forget that he has another horse in the field, Z Humor, who’ll be an even bigger longshot than Court Vision.